Study Warned of China Quake Risk Nearly a Year Ago

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Kevin Holden Platt in Beijing

for National Geographic News

May 16, 2008

Just ten months before a deadly earthquake struck Sichuan Province's Beichuan county on May 12, a scientific study warned that the Chinese region was ripe for a major quake.  After examining satellite images and conducting on-the-ground inspections of deep, active faults in Sichuan Province for more than a decade, scientists issued a warning.

"The faults are sufficiently long to sustain a strong ground-shaking earthquake, making them potentially serious sources of regional seismic hazard," the Chinese, European, and U.S. geoscientists wrote in the mid-July 2007 edition of the journal Tectonics.

They concluded that clashing tectonic forces were growing in Beichuan, ready to burst in an explosion of seismic energy.  With precision and what now seems like eerie foresight, the researchers charted the active faults on multicolored maps of Beichuan, which turned out to be the epicenter of the recent earthquake.

"As far as I know, this is the only investigation of these active faults," said study co-author Michael Ellis of the Center for Earthquake Research and Information at the University of Memphis in Tennessee.  (Related: "China Quake Delivered Seismic One-Two Punch" [May 15, 2008].)

The magnitude 7.9 quake that struck on May 12 almost entirely leveled parts of Sichuan Province. Chinese officials today estimated that the death toll would reach 50,000 and that nearly five million people are homeless.  (See photos of the earthquake's destruction.)

"Locked in a Journal"
There is little reason to believe Chinese officials were aware of the July 2007 report, or that it would have made much difference if they had been.  "

We had certainly identified the potential of these active faults," Ellis said. "But that information was effectively locked in an academic journal."

http://news.nationalgeographic_com/news/2008/05/080516-earthquake-predicted.html

[ 本帖最后由 Sichuanese 于 2008-8-6 20:26　编辑：]

四川青川再次发生6.1级余震

陕西、重庆等地地震台证实，北京时间8月5日17时49分，在四川省广元市青川县（北纬32.8°，东经105.5°）发生6．1级余震，震源深度约10公里。陕西西安、宝鸡、汉中、渭南、商洛、榆林，甘肃天水、兰州，宁夏银川和四川成都以及重庆等地震感明显。

西部网报导，陕西地震台网初步测定，北京时间2008年8月5日17时48分，四川省青川县（北纬32.8°，东经105.5°）发生6.1级地震。陕西省西安、宝鸡、汉中、渭南、商洛、榆林等地均有明显震感。

华龙网报导，重庆市地震台网测定：北京时间2008年8月5日17时49分，四川省青川县（北纬32.8°，东经105.5°）发生6.1级余震。据悉，陕西西安、渭南、宝鸡、咸阳、汉中，及，及甘肃天水、兰州，宁夏银川和四川成都等地都有明显震感。

下午17时55分左右，重庆主城区及各区县等大部分地区都出现震感，持续时间十几秒钟。四川省会成都震感强烈。一些公寓左右摇晃，房间内的灯左右摇摆，震感持续近一分钟。

文章提交者：hjtjjsw

前两天有一网友叫做＂我是一粒沙＂发过一贴说是他拍摄到的疑似地震云，西安方向的，现在果然有问题了．

文章提交者：最爱红钻帝国

建造如此庞大的水利工程会引发周边一连串地震，这是论证建造三峡时美国专家所说的，而且当时没有一家美国公司参加工程竟标

文章提交者：扶风过客

中国地震台网中心到现在还没有把这条消息发布出来

*.*.*.*   2008-8-5 19:24:55

文章提交者：挑剔者

中国地震台网中心到现在还没有把这条消息发布出来

──

刚刚看过了，还没新数据。

这就是他们干活的效率。地震过去3小时了。

指望他们预测地震，真还不如指望蛤蟆。

文章提交者：jjyyzlcw

6.1级不小了，要没有个8级在前，6.1也算强震了。怎么都不当回事？媒体在宣火炬。哪个大哪个小啊？

我要是媒体编辑，6.1级毫无疑问头条新闻，不是说以人为本吗，怎么对地震似乎遮遮掩掩？

文章提交者：xuyun123

我正在尿尿，忽然地震了。根据JJ的摇摆程度，6.0级的样子.

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我是国家地震局的，我们的先进仪器没有测到这次地震，而您准确测到了。希望你把您JJ送来我们仔细研究一下。

文章提交者：司马苟

四川加油？？？？？？？？？？？？？？？？？

文章提交者：江山美如画

刚刚还看到有人（3、4号的帖子）预测这两天四川要发生6级地震。