日本新首相麻生太郎06年文：日本乐见中国的民主未来

日本外务省大臣麻生太郎

2006年3月13日

我对中国充满信心。如果包括香港在内，中国已经成为我们有史以来最大的贸易伙伴，中国促进了我们目前的经济复苏。今后，我们两国的互相依赖将只会变得更加紧密。我很乐意看到中国重返东亚的中心舞台──当中国发展成为一个自由民主国家的时候。我相信这一天将会到来。

民主势力在亚洲正在不断壮大。不久以前，一个日本首相想访问一个最近的民主邻国，还要花上一夜时间，往南飞到堪培拉。今天，他只要往西飞两个小时就行了，到首尔，全球最强大民主国家之一的首都。

中国的转型离得越来越近了，我对这个进程的前景充满信心。日本、韩国、印度尼西亚的人民都可以证明，长期的经济发展会形成一个稳固的中产阶级，而这个中产阶级将提出越来越多的政治诉求。问题早就不再是中国“是否”，而是中国将“以什么速度”，最终转变成一个完全民主的国家。我可以向我们中国的朋友们保证，日本将帮助中国胜利实现这一目标。

想象一下：20年以后，中国在日本的影响将是巨大的。中国的旅游者，从学生到退休老人，将是日本最大的旅游消费群体，他们会充满日本各个著名景点，比如京都。东京的出租车司机将说中国话，而不是英语。中国将是日本经济最大的投资者之一。东京相当部分的商业会掌握在中国人的手里。今天，日本公司前往纽约进行投资考察──到那时，他们将先飞往上海。

事实上，如果考虑到亚洲的历史背景，以上的场景未免有点新鲜和令人惊奇。中国不是以一个世界强国的形象出现的，尽管有些人这样声称；事实上，中国仍然置身在其过去辉煌的阴影中。我希望中国能够明白，世界上已经不再有一个帝国的容身之地。今天全球性的指导原则，是各国互相依存，并由此形成国与国之间的和谐共处。

中国的历史，是走在极端间的历史。1842年，钟摆摆到了一个极端，清朝在鸦 片战争中被击败，陷入西方强权的压迫中。1949年，中国大陆摆向了另一个极端，毛泽东指挥了大跃进和文化大革命──现在看来，这二者都是走入了政治歧途。直到最近，对中国人而言，在理想和现实之间、在“我是谁”和“我希望自己是谁”之间，找到平衡，还是一种奢求。

至关重要的是，中国可以从日本的失败经验中学习──我们毕竟“在过，做过”（"been there, done that"）。日本在其历史上，两次经历了极端民族主义。一个活生生的例子是1964年，东京奥运会开幕前夕，一个日本少年行刺美国驻日大使埃德温.O.赖肖尔事件。那个时候，日本人对美国势力和影响的民族情绪还很强烈。北京的领导人可以从这样的日本经验中汲取教训，更好地去对付他们本国不断高涨的民族主义。日本在六十和七十年代发生的环境破坏，是中国可以从日本的错误中学习的另一个领域，就像我们同样希望中国也能从日本的成功中得到启发一样。

在军事存在方面，日本是亚洲天然的稳定力量。美国和日本有着世界上最长久的安全伙伴关系。这两个民主国家间的关系，坦诚而紧密。日本人或美国人单独行动，可能会引起些许疑虑，而他们协同合作，就不会带来任何误会。中国和任何一个其他亚洲国家，都可以继续依赖日美建立的这个稳定机制。我们也欢迎北京利用这个机制。我因此要求北京完全公开其军费开支，目前这项开支仍是不透明的，且正如中国承认的那样，在最近十年内翻了三番。

最后一个日本战后史上的映像：我可以自豪地宣称，除了少数的例外，日本以开放和平等的姿态对待邻国。作为一个自称的“电子技师”，我想把日本对邻国的态度比喻作“P2P”，或者说，对等网络关系。

我希望这样的构想能够取得广泛的共鸣，特别是在中国人民中间。正是出于这个原因，我请我外务省的同事们设立了一个长年学生交换项目，这一定会产生完全积极的影响，正如我对中国未来的展望。

我非常希望日本的年轻一代能够热情友好地看待中国。中国的崛起不应该阻止这样的兴趣。我们的新项目将促进数以千计中日高中生之间的交流，使得这些年轻的使者，能够在对方国家的普通家庭居住、生活，播下互相理解的种子。一旦我们的项目取得成功，20年后，这些有了对中国第一手认识的日本男子和女子，他们最亲密的朋友圈里面，就会有中国人。而更多的中国人，也会对日本有同样的感知。

*发表于2006年3月13日《亚洲华尔街日报》个人专栏

附录一、英文原文：

Japan Welcomes China's Democratic Future

Contribution by Minister for Foreign Affaris Taro Aso to the Asian Wall Street Journal

March 13, 2006

I am positive on China. Already the biggest trading partner in our history if combined with Hong Kong, China has powered our recent economic recovery. Going forward, our co-dependence will only become more pronounced. I welcome China's return to center stage in East Asia--as long as China evolves into a liberal democracy. And I believe it will.

Democracy in Asia is spreading. Not so long ago, a Japanese prime minister would have to fly south overnight to Canberra to meet our nearest democratic neighbor. Now, he can fly west for only two hours to Seoul, capital of one of the world's most vibrant democracies.

China's turn is imminent, and I am positive on the prospects for this evolution. Citizens of Japan, South Korea and Indonesia can all attest that prolonged economic development creates a stable middle class, which in turn provides a springboard for greater political representation. The question is no longer "whether," but "at what speed" China will metamorphose into a fully democratic nation. I can assure our friends in China that Japan is committed to China's success to that end.

Imagine: In 20 years, China's influence in Japan will be enormous. Chinese holiday makers, from students to the retired, will be the largest consumers of Japanese tourism, filling favorite tourist spots like Kyoto. Tokyo's taxi drivers will speak Chinese, not English. China will be one of the largest investors in Japan's economy. A considerable proportion of the shares traded in Tokyo will rest in Chinese hands. Today, Japanese companies go to New York for investor marketing trips--soon, they will fly to Shanghai first.

In truth, there is little new or surprising about these scenarios, considering Asia's historical context. China is not emerging afresh as a world power, as many claim; it is, in fact, reclaiming its historical prominence. My hope is that China recognizes that there is no longer a place for an empire. Rather, the guiding principles in today's world are global interdependence and the international harmony that can engender.

China's history is one of extremes. In 1842, the pendulum swung to one extreme when the Qing dynasty was defeated in the Opium War and fell under the coercive power of the West. In 1949, the mainland swung to another extreme, as Mao Zedong ushered in the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution--both now seen as misguided policies. Until recently, the Chinese did not have the luxury of striking a balance between vision and reality, between who they are and who they wish to be.

Crucially, China can learn from Japan's missteps--we have "been there, done that." Japan has experienced extreme nationalism twice in the last century. A telling incident occurred in 1964, shortly before the opening of the Tokyo Olympic Games, when a Japanese teenager stabbed Edwin O. Reischauer, then-American Ambassador to Japan. At the time, Japanese emotions still ran high at the thought of U.S. power and influence. Beijing's leaders can learn from such Japanese experiences to better manage their own rising nationalism. Environmental degradation, which suffocated Japan in the 1960s and 1970s, is another area where China can learn from Japan's mistakes, just as we hope China is also inspired by our successes.

In terms of military presence, Japan is Asia's natural stabilizer. The U.S. and Japan have the world's longest-standing security partnership. It is transparent and a relationship between two democracies. Acting alone, the Japanese or the Americans might raise a few eyebrows; acting together, there is no room for misunderstanding. China and every other Asian nation can continue to count on the built-in stabilizer provided jointly by Japan and America, a common good that is readily available to Beijing. Hence my request that Beijing fully disclose its defense spending, which has remained opaque yet--as Beijing admits--has more than trebled over the last ten years.

A final reflection on Japan's post-war record: I can say with confidence that with a few exceptions, Japan has conducted itself openly and treated neighboring nations as peers. As a self-proclaimed "techie," I have called the attitude that Japan has shown toward its neighboring nations one of "P2P," or peer-to-peer relations.

I would like these thoughts to resonate widely, especially with the citizens of China. For this reason, I have asked my colleagues at the Japanese Foreign Ministry to create a multi-year student-exchange program that is absolutely positive, like my vision of China's future.

I would very much like Japan's youth to look warmly at China. The growth of China must hinder no one's interests. Our new program will facilitate the exchange of thousands of Japanese and Chinese high school students, enabling these young ambassadors to stay in ordinary homes in each other's nations and planting the seeds of mutual understanding. If our program is successful, in 20 years' time, Japanese men and women with first-hand knowledge of China will view the Chinese among their closest friends. And many more Chinese will feel the same about Japan.

* This article also appeared on the Op-Ed page of the Wall Street Journal on the 13th of March.

http://www.mofa.go.jp/announce/fm/aso/contribute0603.html